Box Office Prediction: ‘Captain America: The Winter Soldier’ vs. ‘Rio 2′

Published 7 months ago by , Updated April 9th, 2014 at 12:44 pm,

Winter Soldier vs. Rio 2 Box Office Prediction: Captain America: The Winter Soldier vs. Rio 2
Welcome to the Screen Rant Box Office Prediction. Every week we put together an informal list of box office picks for the upcoming weekend – in collaboration with the Screen Rant Underground podcast Box Office Battle – to offer readers a rough estimate of how new releases (and returning holdovers) will perform in theaters.

For a recap of last week’s box office totals, read our box office wrap-up from Captain America: The Winter Soldier‘s opening weekend – and scroll to the bottom of this post to see how our previous picks measured up.

Full disclosure: Box office predictions are not an exact science. We acknowledge that our picks may not always be correct. For the sake of offering a jumping off point for discussion, here are our picks for the weekend of April 11 – 13, 2014.

This weekend, animated sequel Rio 2 opens in 3,900 theaters, sports dramedy Draft Day debuts in 2,700 theaters, and horror movie Oculus is released in 2,500 theaters. Joe and Only Lovers Left Alive get unspecified limited releases while The Railway Man debuts in 4 theaters.

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#1 – Captain America: The Winter Soldier

Look for last week’s champ, Captain America: The Winter Soldier (read our review), to finish in the top spot again this week. Setting a new April record with over $95 million during its opening weekend, the latest installment in the Marvel Cinematic Universe is poised to be the main draw from now until the beginning of May. With the huge domestic total and overwhelming positive buzz, it’s clear this will have strong legs for the next several weeks.

Captain America 2 Scarlet Johansson Black Widow Chris Evans Box Office Prediction: Captain America: The Winter Soldier vs. Rio 2

#2 – Rio 2

One of this week’s new releases, Rio 2, is our choice for second place. The first film in this budding franchise released during a similar timeframe in 2011 and debuted with a $39.2 million opening weekend. While the $143.6 million domestic total indicates this brand isn’t as strong as those offerings from Pixar and DreamWorks, it will serve as a viable option for families. With Muppets Most Wanted underperforming, that demographic is ripe for the taking and this animated sequel could do the trick.

#3 – Oculus

Coming in third should be the new horror film Oculus. It’s not expected to be a major crossover hit, but there’s some potential for a counter-programming option to make small waves this weekend. In recent years, genre entries such as Cabin in the Woods ($14.7 million) and Evil Dead ($25.7 million) have opened strongly in April, suggesting that horror fans are always in the mood for some new scares.

#4 – Draft Day

Our choice for fourth place is Draft Day. As NFL enthusiasts gear up for the 2014 draft, this film looks to capitalize on the popularity of the league, but there’s little to indicate it will be a big hit. Kevin Costner hasn’t been a solid box office draw in years (this February’s 3 Days to Kill only solidified that notion) and with Draft Day’s low tracking numbers, it seems like that trend will continue. Football die-hards and audiences looking for a straightforward drama (as opposed to the spectacle of Marvel) could check it out, but it’s doubtful it makes much of an impact.

Draft Day Super Bowl Commercial Trailer 2014 Box Office Prediction: Captain America: The Winter Soldier vs. Rio 2

#5 – Noah

Rounding out the top five should be Noah (read our review). Darren Aronofsky’s Biblical epic has grossed $72.3 million to date, but now the competition gets tougher. Not only will The Winter Soldier continue to drain business from this film, it also has three new nationwide releases to contend with, which could lower demand.

#10 – Sabotage

Our tiebreaker for this week is Sabotage (read our review). The latest Arnold Schwarzenegger action vehicle came in eighth last week.

That’s it for this week’s breakdown.

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Screen Rant Underground Logo Header Box Office Prediction: Captain America: The Winter Soldier vs. Rio 2

Now, if you want to participate in the weekly Box Office Battle, it’s time for you to make your picks! In the comments section below, post what you think will be the top five movies this weekend at the box office as well as your own number ten tiebreaker. Then, tune into the Screen Rant Underground podcast for the results and find out who won.

Opening in theaters this week (Wide):

  • Rio 2 – 3,900 theaters
  • Draft Day – 2,700 theaters
  • Oculus – 2,500 theaters

Opening in theaters this week (Limited):

  • Joe – unspecified
  • Only Lovers Left Alive – unspecified
  • The Railway Man – 4 theaters

Box Office Battle Scoring Rules: You get three (3) points for each direct match with the weekend actuals and one (1) point for each movie placed within one spot of the exact position. A perfect score is 15 points. Tie-breakers are not worth any points but, in the event of a tie, the person with a tie-breaker selection closest to the number 10 spot will be awarded the win.

Last Week’s Official Box Office Battle Reader Winner (Captain America: The Winter Soldier’s opening): Sal reports that there is a two-way tie between Chris B. and PeterGecko. Both had a score of 12 and coincidentally finished two spots away from the tiebreaker.

For the record, here are our picks from last week – along with the corresponding amount of points we received for each pick (listed in parenthesis).

  • #1 – Captain America: The Winter Soldier (3)
  • #2 – Noah (3)
  • #3 – Divergent (3)
  • #4 – Muppets Most Wanted (1)
  • #5 – The Grand Budapest Hotel (1)
  • #10 – Need for Speed
  • Final Score: 11 points

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Make sure to check back later this week for the official box office results and tune into the Screen Rant Underground podcast for the weekly winners!

Follow Chris on Twitter @ChrisAgar90

Source: Box Office Mojo (Release Schedule)

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TAGS: box office

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  1. Like you have to ask… Hulk… no wait. Captain America smash Rio2.

  2. Yeah right, Rio 2 will take the top spot.

    • Don’t be so sure about that. CA2 is walking around with an A cinemascore, stellar reviews and a great opening weekend. A drop of 50% is common for those type of movies. That would indicate that it’s going to score around 42m(60%drop) ~ 55(40%drop).

      Rio isn’t getting nearly as much attention. Its reviews are below average for an animated movie and the first one was not really a cultural phenomenon. Rio did not play well with general audiences, and did not make that much money. Most predictions for this have it at a low 40m to 45m.

      The chances that Rio rises so high, and that CA2 drops that far, together.. those are pretty slim. But we’ll see what’s going to happen.

      • No it will take no.1. That’s a fact. 90 million opening weekend.

        • As you were saying Blue Bird.

  3. 1) Captain America: The Winter Soldier
    2) Rio 2
    3) Draft Day
    4) Noah
    5) Oculus

    10) Mr. Peabody & Sherman

  4. word of mouth is going to help cap so much
    people didnt care for the first one abroad because its captian america and people probably thought that is all about patriotism and america and they didnt care for that. but if people hear that its got an amazing story and action then i think cap will be 1 for 3 weeks

  5. 1.Captain America: The Winter Soldier
    2.Rio 2
    3.Oculus
    4.Draft Day
    5.Noah
    10.Need For Speed

  6. Watching Captain America:The Winter Soldier was the best Marvel movie I seen, my co workers are already buying advance ticket to watch Cap this coming weekend this movie is great and getting so much attention around the world therefore:

    1 Captain America:The winter Soldier will Rule once again
    2 Rio
    3 Octulus
    4 Draft day
    5 Noah

  7. Captain America
    Rio 2
    Divergent
    Oculus
    Noah
    Sabatoge

  8. Captain America
    Rio 2
    Oculus
    Divergent
    Draft Day
    Sabatoge

  9. 1. Captain America 2
    2. Rio 2
    3. Noah
    4. Oculus
    5. Divergent
    10. Sabotage

  10. 1. Captain America: The Winter Soldier
    2. Rio 2
    3. Draft Day
    4. Oculus
    5. Noah
    10. Sabotage

  11. Captain Puerto Rico for the win again.

  12. 1. Captain America: The Winter Soldier
    2. Rio 2
    3. Oculus
    4. Noah
    5. Draft Day
    10.Mr. Peabody & Sherman

  13. I saw Winter Soldier for the third time last night. I agree it will do well for a while yet.

    I think Noah’s big opening was a sugar hit but word of mouth will kill it. It looks like a big hollywood biblically epic blockbuster in terms of how it is presented then when you go to see it it is a silly art house film with a nutty extreme green agenda being preached at you. All of which might have been forgiven except the film is s**** then those things are really on the nose.

    Looking forward to Divergent.

    • I dunno, I never got an extreme green message at all when I saw Noah but it was disappointing. I wish they’d done more with the nephilim style characters.

  14. 1. Captain America: The Winter Soldier
    2. Rio 2
    3. Noah
    4. Oculus
    5. Draft Day
    10. Mr. Peabody & Sherman
    Yay, that will make it my second win on this game. Even though it was a tie, I still count it.

  15. ‘Rio 2′ will destroy ‘Captai America : TWS’ .

    • As you were saying Daniel.

  16. ‘Rio 2′ will destroy ‘Captain America : TWS’ .

  17. 1. Captain America: The Winter Soldier
    2. Rio 2
    3. Noah
    4. Draft Day
    5. Oculus
    10. Mr. Peabody & Sherman