Box Office Prediction: ‘Elysium’ vs. ‘Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters’

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Elysium Percy Jackson Box Office Box Office Prediction: Elysium vs. Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters

Welcome to the Screen Rant Box Office Prediction. Every week we put together an informal list of box office picks for the upcoming weekend – in collaboration with the Screen Rant Underground podcast Box Office Battle – to offer readers a rough estimate of how new releases (and returning holdovers) will perform in theaters during the upcoming weekend.

For a recap of last week’s box office totals, read our box office wrap-up from 2 Guns’ opening weekend – and scroll to the bottom of this post to see how our previous picks measured up.

Full disclosure: Box office predictions are not an exact science. We acknowledge that our picks may not always be correct. For the sake of offering a jumping off point for discussion, here are our picks for the weekend of August 9th – 11th, 2013.

This weekend, the futuristic sci-fi thriller Elysium opens in over 2,700 theaters, the R-rated drug dealer comedy We’re the Millers debuts in more than 3,150 theaters, the fantasy sequel Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters is released in 2,800 theaters, and Disney’s latest animated movie Planes flies into 3,400 theaters. In a World and Lovelace open in limited release.

#1 – Elysium

Neill Blomkamp’s sophomore feature Elysium should finish the weekend on top of the box office. His first film, 2009’s District 9 was one of the biggest surprises of that summer, grossing $37.4 million in the first weekend en route to a $115.6 million domestic total. In the four years since its release, District 9 has remained a favorite among movie fans and audiences are eager to see what the director can do with a much bigger budget.

Also helping Elysium’s box office prospects is the presence of actor Matt Damon, who has been one of the biggest movie stars in recent memory thanks to turns in hit films like The Departed and the Bourne trilogy. Even though Elysium already had a built-in audience thanks to the success of District 9, Damon’s involvement could help bring in casual audiences curious to see the actor lead a major sci-fi film.

elysium riddick images Box Office Prediction: Elysium vs. Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters

#2 – We’re the Millers

We’re predicting that the latest R-rated comedy We’re the Millers will be in second place this weekend. The film provides audiences with the first adult comedy since June’s hit The Heat, so fans of the genre get their chance to see something fresh.

The film actually opens on Wednesday, which may slightly lower its weekend numbers. However, sporting a humorous premise (a drug dealer enlists a fake “family” in order to get marijuana across the border), We’re the Millers also has the recognizable Jennifer Aniston and former Saturday Night Live funnyman Jason Sudeikis leading the cast – which could help the movie stand out. Unfortunately, neither Aniston nor Sudeikis can be considered a reliable box office draw, so it remains to be seen how much they’ll boost the project.

#3 – Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters

Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters is likely to come in third. The first film in this series, Percy Jackson and the Olympians: The Lightning Thief, grossed a mediocre $88 million domestically (and finishing third opening weekend). This franchise may have its supporters, but it’s clear that the fan base is not as wide as similar films like Harry Potter. Opening in such a crowded marketplace could also hurt this sequel’s chances at making a major impact.

An important thing for our readers to keep in mind: Like We’re the MillersPercy Jackson: Sea of Monsters is opening on Wednesday, August 7, and die-hard fans may turn out before the weekend begins – subsequently lowering the weekend box office turnout.

percy jackson sea monsters trailer Box Office Prediction: Elysium vs. Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters

#4 – 2 Guns

We’re predicting last week’s champion 2 Guns to fall to fourth place in its second weekend. The film performed very well in its first three days, grossing $27 million. While the presence of Denzel Washington and Mark Wahlberg helped carry the action-comedy to success, reviews were not the strongest (read our review for an example) and Elysium (a more anticipated film among moviegoers) opening could take away business. It is unlikely 2 Guns will have strong legs.

#5 – The Wolverine

In fifth place, we’re picking The Wolverine (read our review). Fox’s latest superhero adaptation did not do as well as Iron Man 3 and Man of Steel, but is still a minor hit (making $94.6 million domestically as of this writing), and thanks to a strong worldwide gross, is a profitable endeavor for the studio. As in the case of 2 Guns, Elysium will more than likely draw in audiences looking for an action picture this weekend.

#10 – Grown Ups 2

Our number ten tiebreaker pick is Grown Ups 2. The film finished in sixth last weekend and as of this writing has made $116.1 million.

Notes

Despite having the widest release among this weekend’s new movies, we believe Planes will fall just out of the top five in its first three days – and come in at number six. Typically, animated family films are box office gold, but the non-Pixar Cars spinoff will face a lot of competition in The Smurfs 2 and the juggernaut Despicable Me 2.

That’s it for this week’s breakdown.

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Now, if you want to participate in the weekly Box Office Battle, it’s time for you to make your picks! In the comments section below, post what you think will be the top five movies this weekend at the box office as well as your own number ten tiebreaker. Then, tune into the Screen Rant Underground podcast for the results and find out who won.

Opening in theaters this week (Wide):

  • Elysium – 2,700+ theaters
  • We’re the Millers – 3,150+ theaters (on Wednesday)
  • Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters – 2,800 theaters (on Wednesday)
  • Planes – 3,400 theaters

Opening in theaters this week (Limited):

  • In A World – unspecified
  • Lovelace – unspecified

Box Office Battle Scoring Rules: You get three (3) points for each direct match with the weekend actuals and one (1) point for each movie placed within one spot of the exact position. A perfect score is 15 points. Tie-breakers are not worth any points but, in the event of a tie, the person with a tie-breaker selection closest to the number 10 spot will be awarded the win.

Last Week’s Official Box Office Battle Reader Winner (2 Guns opening): Sal reports that two people achieved perfect scores of 15 (Carlos and Chris Etrata). However, the winner was Carlos – he nailed the holy grail of a perfect 15 and a perfect tiebreaker.

For the record, here are our picks from last week – along with the corresponding amount of points we received for each pick (listed in parenthesis).

  • #1 – 2 Guns (3)
  • #2 - The Smurfs (1)
  • #3 - The Wolverine (1)
  • #4 - The Conjuring (3)
  • #5 - Despicable Me 2 (3)
  • #10 – Pacific Rim
  • Final Score: 11 points and a perfect tie-breaker.

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Make sure to check back later this week for the official box office results and tune into the Screen Rant Underground podcast for the weekly winners!

Follow Chris on Twitter @ChrisAgar90

Source: Box Office Mojo (Release Schedule)

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TAGS: box office

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  1. Planes not in the top 5? I think it will be #1.

    1. Planes
    2. Elysium
    3. Percy Jackson
    4. We’re The Millers
    5. 2 Guns
    10. Turbo

    • This is BoxOfficeMojo’s prediction:

      Forecast (August 9-11)
      1. Elysium – $34.1 million
      2. Planes – $23.8 million
      3. Percy Jackson 2 – $18.9 million ($28.4 million five-day)
      4. We’re the Millers – $18.2 million ($29.5 million five-day)
      5. 2 Guns – $14.7 million (-46%)
      6. The Wolverine – $11 million (-48%)
      7. The Smurfs 2 – $10.4 million (-41%)

      I think everyone is underestimating the power of the children.

      • Yeah, I think planes are cooler than cars. I mean come on, planes can fly, and they’re faster than cars.

  2. I think your undervaluing planes as a draw. Smurfs 2 shouldnt effect it to much

  3. P.S. I don’t really listen to podcasts, is it possible to get a recap of the top 5 winners from the previous week?

  4. 1. Elysium
    2. Percy Jackson
    3. We’re the Millers
    4. 2 Guns
    5. Planes
    10. Grown Ups

  5. 1. We’re The Millers
    2. Elysium
    3. Planes
    4. Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters
    5. The Wolverine
    10. Grown Ups 2

  6. Ill go
    1. Elysium
    2. Planes
    3. We’re te millers
    4. Percy Jackson
    5. 2 guns
    10. Grown ups 2

  7. well the end of the summer is here, shame elysium is rated R as it will
    lose a portion of audience (including me) i say the movie domestically
    will do 130 million to 150 million domestically and worldwide about 355 million dollars if it lives of to expectations. district 9 had 37 million
    dollar opening without a A list actor so elysium should do about 40 million
    this weekend. everyone else will just have to pickup whatever is leftover.

    • Its biggest problem is that people cant pronouce the title, and have have no odea what it means. That will hurt it way more than an R rating

  8. 1 Elysium
    2 Planes
    3 We’re the Millers
    4 Percy Jackson
    5 2 Guns
    10 Grown ups 2

  9. I have some hope for Elysium, but so far, my wife and I have been extremely disappointed in the so-called summer block-busters. If anyone cares, as far as entertainment value goes, my list of summer movies so far from worst to best:

    The Lone Ranger – If I begin to say how awful this movie is, I won’t be able to stop for about 100 pages. Just take my word for it.

    After Earth – Is it out on DVD yet? Maybe this will finally convince Will Smith of the dangers of nepotism. Please Will, do your boy a favor and let him find his own way.

    World War Z – This movie was so terrible I don’t even know where to begin. I’m surprised an actor the calibur of Brad Pitt signed on for this. Mireille Enos (The Killing) is a wonderfully talented actor whose ability is simply wasted in this one.

    Man of Steel – Zach Snyder gives us a completely unimaginative and uninventive rehashing of classic Superman lore. General Zod is nothing more than a plain-vanilla villain in this one. Richard Donner, in 1980′s Superman II, did a much better job with his character, without any CGI. Donner’s over-the-top General Zod, played brilliantly by Terernce Stamp (“Come to me Superman…KNEEEEEEEEL before ZOD!”), was both comical and menacing.

    Iron Man 3 – a weak follow-up to The Avengers that didn’t even include SHIELD in the story. Not even Ben Kingsley’s hilarious performance could overcome a weak script and a villain who really isn’t very menacing or believable.

    The Wolverine – Been there, done that. Please, Marvel, at least try to give us something different with this character.

    Star Trek: Into Darkness – This is where we get into the “not bad” category, as this movie was just that – not bad. The only disappointment I had was the identity of the main villain, John Harrison . If JJ Abrams wants Star Trek to be in a new universe, then please, put it into a new universe. Other than that thought, seriously, it isn’t that bad of a movie.

    The Great Gatsby – Again, a pretty good movie. DiCapriio and MacGuire give very good performances. However, it’s tough to live up to F. Scott Fitzgerald’s classic.

    The most entertaining movie that I’ve seen this summer, however, is the sleeper horror movie, “The Conjuring.” Yes, it is in the campfire horror movie genre, but its jump-out-at-you scares are good enough to make you leap out of your seat a few times and say out loud to the characters, “Don’t go down there, don’t go down there…”

    In other words, The Conjuring is my pick based on the best criteria of all: its scares entertained me and kept me watching for the full 90 minutes. After all, on the most basic level, isn’t that what a movie is supposed to do?

    • I like how you lined everything up nice and neat, but you’re really negative, or just super realistic. Could you try to make a list of movies you found entertaining, and just that? Whether I agree or disagree with your list, people want to see a list of things you liked, or that they SHOULD see, you just put 3 movies that you liked, and one of them you counted as “Not bad”. so a positive list would be nice. And for the record I totally agree with you about After Earth and Star Trek. ESPECIALLY Star Trek. And I never saw WWZ,but I LOVED all the other movies you mentioned. We’ve really already seen these, so if you were trying to ward people away from terrible movies, it might be too late. write about Jack the Giant Slayer, Fast and Furious 6, Oblivion, RED 2! stuff that are big blockbusters and people maybe didn’t see! I like the way you write and I’d like your take on those.

    • Also, does “kept me watching” mean you stopped watching the ones you didn’t like?

      • I like your comments but to call man of steel a rehash makes absolutely no sense. It was diffrent then any superman film to date.

  10. 1. Elysium
    2. PLanes
    3. We’re the Millers
    4. Percy Jackson
    5. 2 Guns

    10 Grown Ups 2.

  11. 1. Planes
    2. Elysium
    3. Percy Jackson
    4. We’re The Millers.
    5. 2 Guns.
    10. Turbo

  12. 1. Elysium
    2. Percy Jackson
    3. We’re The Millers
    4. 2 Guns
    5. Planes
    10. Turbo

  13. 1. Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters
    2. Elysium
    3. 2 Guns
    4. We’re the Millers
    5. The Wolverine
    6. Planes

    1 and 2 are interchangable, but you know what I really think.

  14. Thankfully I was wrong last week. Smurfs 2 doesn’t really deserve 1 spot. Then again it doesn’t really deserve to exist. 1 Smurf movie was more than enough.

    #1 Elysium
    #2 We’re the Millers
    #3 2 Guns
    #4 Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters
    #5 Planes
    #10 Grown Ups 2

  15. 1. Elysium
    2. We’re the millers
    3. 2 Guns
    4. Percy Jackson
    5. Planes
    10. Turbo

  16. 1. We’re the Millers
    2. Elysium
    3. Two Guns
    4. Percy Jackson
    5. Planes
    10.Pacific Rim

  17. 1.Planes
    2.Elysium
    3.We’re the Millers
    4.2 Guns
    5.Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters
    10.Grown Ups 2

  18. I hope Elysium and We’re The Millers are the top 2. I hope to see both this weekend.

  19. 1. Planes
    2. Percy Jackson
    3. We’re the Millers
    4. Elysium
    5. 2 Guns
    8.Pacific Rim

  20. 1.Elysium
    2.Planes
    3.Percy Jackson
    4.We’re the Millers
    5.2 Guns
    10.Grown Ups 2

  21. Percy Jackson: The Sea of Monsters was a great movie, just like the first one. I saw “The Lightning Thief” in theatres around Spring 2010 I was 31 years old that year. Yesterday, I went to see Percy Jackson (Part 2) in theatres and it turned out ok. Logan Lerman did a good job playing Percy, Son of Poseidion.

  22. 1. Elysium
    2. We the Millers
    3. Planes
    4. Percy Jackson
    5. 2 Guns
    10. The Conjuring

  23. 1- Elysium
    2- Planes
    3- We’re The Millers
    4- Percy Jackson 2
    5- The Smurfs 2
    10- Grown Ups 2

    :D