Welcome to the Screen Rant Box Office Prediction. Every week we put together an informal list of box office picks for the upcoming weekend to offer readers a rough estimate of how new releases (and returning holdovers) will perform in theaters.

For a recap of last week’s box office totals, read our box office wrap-up from The LEGO Batman Movie‘s opening weekend, and scroll to the bottom of this post to see how our picks matched up.

Full disclosure: Box office predictions are not an exact science. We acknowledge our picks may not always be correct. For the sake of offering a jumping off point for discussion, here are our picks for the weekend of February 17 – 19, 2017.

This weekend, A Cure for Wellness opens in 2,700 theaters, The Great Wall premieres in more than 3,200 locations, and Fist Fight plays in more than 3,000 theaters.

#1 – The LEGO Batman Movie

Repeating in the top spot should be The LEGO Batman Movie (read our review), which brought in $53 million during its opening weekend last week. Those figures were well below the expectations analysts had going in, but LEGO Batman still had a strong showing, taking advantage of minimal competition for the family demographic. It should be more of the same for this weekend as well. The spinoff remains the only high-profile animated film currently playing, and the slew of positive reviews make it a very appealing option for fans young and old. Also helping its prospects is the fact that none of this week’s new releases have all that much buzz (more on that in a bit), so LEGO Batman and his family have a clear road to #1 again.

LEGO Batman Movie Batman 8 Box Office Prediction: The Great Wall vs. A Cure for Wellness

#2 – Fifty Shades Darker

Though it should take a bit of a hit in its second weekend, Fifty Shades Darker (read our review) looks to come in second place again. The romance film grossed $46.6 million in its firs three days, fueled by the source material’s sizable fan base. That following should keep it hanging around the top of the charts for at least another week or two, especially since there’s nothing all that high-profile premiering. Despite being panned by critics, Darker overshadows the week’s new arrivals and should continue to draw in decent crowds.

#3 – John Wick: Chapter 2

Running with our theme of last week’s results being this week’s predictions, our choice for third is John Wick: Chapter 2 (read our review). The action sequel proved to be a nice commercial hit for Lionsgate, more than doubling the opening figures of its predecessor with $30.4 million. Chapter 2 is also the beneficiary of much critical acclaim, scoring more positive reactions than the first installment. With the word-of-mouth very enthusiastic, the followup should be able to demonstrate strong legs at the box office. While The Great Wall is going after the action crowd, the response the two films have received could not be more different. Those looking for fun genre thrills will probably opt to spend more quality time with the Baba Yaga, since that seems to be the more worthwhile investment.

keanu reeves laurence fishburne john wick chapter 2 Box Office Prediction: The Great Wall vs. A Cure for Wellness

#4 – The Great Wall

Coming in fourth should be The Great Wall, a fantasy/epic film starring Matt Damon as a mercenary who becomes involved in a conflict to protect the Great Wall of China from invading monsters. Over the past couple of years, Damon has proven to be a solid box office draw; The Martian opened with $54.3 million in 2015, and last year his Jason Bourne return made $59.2 million during its first three days. It’s clear that audiences still enjoy watching him lead a film on the big screen, but The Great Wall might be where his recent hot streak ends. Though the movie has made a whopping $224.5 million internationally, it probably can’t replicate those results in the States.

The biggest detriment The Great Wall faces is its critical reception, as the reviews have been mostly poor to this point. Though Damon is an undisputed A-lister, the performance of his vehicles tends to be dependent on word-of-mouth. For instance, 2014’s The Monuments Men landed with a thud and was largely a non-starter, making only $22 million in its debut. That looks to be the case here, since it’s unlikely many viewers are swayed to The Great Wall as opposed to one of the better-received films still playing. John Wick is the most prominent competition, even though that is rated R, while Great Wall is PG-13. Action fans have been a little starved in the early going of 2017, but they can wait for something else. Tracking indicates a haul of just $17.5 million in the first three days.

#5 – Fist Fight

Rounding out the top five should be Fist Fight, a new comedy featuring Ice Cube and Charlie Day as two school teachers who have a fight with each other. The film’s biggest advantage is that fans of the genre have been underserved of late and do not have much to choose from, allowing Fist Fight to have a monopoly on its target demographic. It should also get a little boost thanks to the presence of its stars. Ice Cube has a solid résumé in the comedy realm, appearing in hits like 22 Jump Street and Ride Along. Day is a familiar face thanks to It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia, though he hasn’t had a ton of success in feature films. One are of concern for Fist Fight is the reception, which is poor. That should prevent it from crossing over, but it should do OK for itself. Projections are set at $17 million.

Notes

Though it’s in our header, we do not think A Cure for Wellness will be able to crack the top five this weekend. The horror/thriller film has not been generating much buzz leading up to its review (even though it received a Super Bowl spot), and the critical reception has been mixed, at best. Estimates indicate an opening weekend of $6.9 million.

Last Week’s Recap

Our Picks:

  1. The LEGO Batman Movie
  2. Fifty Shades Darker
  3. John Wick: Chapter 2
  4. Split
  5. Hidden Figures

Actuals:

  1. The LEGO Batman Movie
  2. Fifty Shades Darker
  3. John Wick: Chapter 2
  4. Split
  5. Hidden Figures

Next Week: LEGO Batman, Get Out, and more!

Sources: Box Office Mojo (Release Schedule), Box Office (Opening Weekend Projections)

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