Experts predict that 2023 could be the year the box office bounces back. As many expected, 2020 was a dismal year for moviegoing. Avengers: Endgame made more money than the US box office in 2020. Worldwide box office take was down $30 billion. This outcome was inevitable after theaters were shut down for most of the year, and many studios vacated the 2020 calendar for greener pastures.
Those pastures aren't looking very green any more, though. 2021 is shaping up to be as bad as 2020, if not worse. Studios have already begun delaying their films dated for spring. No Time to Die was recently postponed for the seventh time, and Disney delayed seven of their 20th Century Fox films. More delays are expected, too, as Disney waits to see how Raya and the Last Dragon performs on their Premier Access platform before deciding what to do with Black Widow.
One expert, though, isn't too worried. According to Deadline, box office analyst and Wall Street veteran Eric Wold thinks 2023 will be the year the box office bounces back. He predicts another hit in 2021 and a less significant drop in 2022 before a substantial resurgence in 2023. Wold believes that pent-up demand will drive moviegoers back to theaters once it is safe to do so. Wold acknowledged streaming's dominance last year but ultimately said that theaters are uniquely positioned to provide consumers with an experience that they can't get at home.
While Wold is an expert Wall Street analyst, it still seems too early to tell what could happen to the box office. The pandemic's unpredictable nature causes things to change day-in and day-out, which leads to erratic behavior. Many hoped 2021 would be the year to save the box office, but it has quickly become clear that we are a long way off from recovery in the first few weeks of January. 2023 may be a dispiriting date to hear, but it's one that seems more realistic than anything.
Still, Wold's analysis doesn't account for streaming and just how unpredictable of an influence it was in 2020. As studios continue to push back their biggest films, some may offload them onto streaming services. We've seen reversals before, and it's likely we'll see them again, with Black Widow being a prime candidate for a streaming change of heart. Either way, though, the 2023 box office is sure to be healthy if the pandemic allows it to be. On top of several untitled Marvel projects, the year will also see the release of Mad Max: Fury Road prequel Furiosa, the third Avatar film, and six live-action Disney films. Hopefully, by then, the pandemic will be more of a distant memory than an omnipresent force looming over the industry.
Source: Deadline