Welcome to the Screen Rant Box Office Prediction. Every week we put together an informal list of box office picks for the upcoming weekend – to offer readers a rough estimate of how new releases (and returning holdovers) will perform in theaters.

For a recap of last week’s box office totals, read our box office wrap-up from The Avengers: Age of Ultron‘s opening weekend – and scroll to the bottom of this post to see how our previous picks measured up.

Full disclosure: Box office predictions are not an exact science. We acknowledge our picks may not always be correct. For the sake of offering a jumping off point for discussion, here are our picks for the weekend of May 8 – 10, 2015.

This weekend, comedy Hot Pursuit opens in more than 2,700 theaters and The D Train plays in over 700 locations. In limited release, we have Maggie and Saint Laurent playing in an unspecified number of locations, while 5 Flight Up opens in 50 theaters.

#1 – Avengers: Age of Ultron

Look for last week’s champ, Avengers: Age of Ultron (read our review) to come in the top spot again during its second weekend. In its first three days, the superhero sequel grossed a highly-impressive $191.2 million, which was good enough for the second-highest opening weekend of all-time. Even though the critical reaction has not been as strong for Earth’s Mightiest this time around, the audience interest is obviously still there in spades. Typically, a big tentpole such as this sees a significant decrease in business following its debut, but Avengers is a special case in that it opened so high that it would take an astronomical fall (read: not gonna happen) in order for it to be dethroned.

Avengers Age of Ultron Ending Explained Hawkeye Future Box Office Prediction: Avengers: Age of Ultron vs. Hot Pursuit


#2 – Hot Pursuit

Coming in a very distant second should be the new comedy Hot Pursuit, which stars Reese Witherspoon and Sofia Vergara. Though both leading ladies are respected A-listers in their craft, neither one of them can be considered a guaranteed box office draw. Witherspoon’s last real live-action hit came in 2008 (Four Christmases; $120.1 million) and Vergara, though a favorite on TV’s Modern Family has never really been in a smash film. Obviously, the hope here is for the actresses to reverse those fortunes, and there’s enough evidence to suggest this could be a minor success.

Early tracking currently has Hot Pursuit projected at an $18 million opening weekend, which isn’t really anything to write home about, but it is a solid total for a smaller film that hasn’t had the most visible marketing campaign leading up to its release. One factor that plays into its benefit is that women-led comedies (like The Heat) have been a hit with audiences in recent years, and this movie will certainly play to that demographic. Obviously, Paul Feig isn’t involved – so that hurts a bit – but Hot Pursuit should be fine on its own to post respectable numbers.

#3 – Furious 7

Our pick for third is Furious 7 (read our review), which came in second last week with $6.6 million. The presence of Avengers definitely took away a lot of business from Dom Toretto and his family, but based on its record-shattering April, everything it earns from here is gravy for Universal. It’s true it’s starting to dwindle down the charts, but Furious 7 is still a reliable moneymaker.

fast furious 7 reviews paul walker Box Office Prediction: Avengers: Age of Ultron vs. Hot Pursuit


#4 – The Age of Adaline

Our pick for fourth is once again The Age of Adaline (read our review), which grossed $6.2 million to come in third last week. The film has never really struck a chord with audiences, and even as a counter-programming option it hasn’t had much success. Yes, there is a target segment for it (as the $23.3 million total gross would indicate), but the mainstream clearly isn’t interested. There’s no reason to believe that will change at this point.

#5 – Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2

Rounding out the top five should be Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 (read our review), which finished in fourth last week with $5.8 million. The comedy sequel has seen its profits go down each week since its release – and with the arrival of Hot Pursuit, comedy fans will have a newer option that honestly just looks like a better film. The 2009 original may have been a hit, but the second adventure for Blart hasn’t been nearly as successful. Its time in the top five is coming to an end.

Last Week’s Recap

paul blart mall cop 2 reviews Box Office Prediction: Avengers: Age of Ultron vs. Hot Pursuit


We correctly predicted the movies that would make up the top five, we were just off in a few places. We got Avengers (1) and Home (5) exact, but in the middle was where we had problems. Furious 7, Age of Adaline, and Paul Blart 2 were 2, 3, and 4 respectively, when we thought those movies would finish third, fourth, and second respectively.

Next Week: Avengers: Age of Ultron, Mad Max: Fury Road and more!

Source: Box Office Mojo (Release Schedule) and Box Office (Opening Weekend Projections)