Welcome to the Screen Rant Box Office Prediction. Every week we put together an informal list of box office picks for the upcoming weekend to offer readers a rough estimate of how new releases (and returning holdovers) will perform in theaters.

For a recap of last week’s box office totals, read our box office wrap-up from The Dark Tower‘s opening weekend, and scroll to the bottom of this post to see how our picks matched up.

Full disclosure: Box office predictions are not an exact science. We acknowledge our picks may not always be correct. For the sake of offering a jumping off point for discussion, here are our picks for the weekend of August 11 – 13, 2017.

This weekend, Annabelle: Creation opens in 3,502 theaters, The Nut Job 2: Nutty By Nature debuts 4,003 locations, and The Glass Castle plays in 1,461 theaters.

#1 – Annabelle: Creation

Coming in first this week should be Annabelle: Creation (read our review), which is the latest installment in the Conjuring cinematic universe. Since the original film debuted in 2013, the franchise has been one of the most reliable performers in the horror genre, with last year’s The Conjuring 2 earning $40.4 million in its opening weekend – en route to a $102.4 million domestic total. There’s also high interest amongst casual audiences in spinoffs detailing the larger mythology of the world, as the first Annabelle film from 2014 was also a big commercial hit. Despite mostly negative reviews, that film made $37.1 million in its first three days, illustrating the demand for Conjuring-based scares.

As such, prospects are quite good for Creation, which is seen by many as a marked improvement over its predecessor. That word-of-mouth should give it a nice boost at the box office, especially since it’s facing limited competition. It’s been a while since a good horror movie hit the marketplace, and with the calendar at the end of summer, most of the high-profile offerings have already had their day at the multiplex. Annabelle: Creation is already off to a strong start based on the Thursday night preview screenings, setting the stage for a fruitful weekend. Projections have it pegged for about $30 million in the first three days.

Annabelle Doll in Creation Box Office Prediction   The Dark Tower vs. Annabelle: Creation

#2 – Dunkirk

Our pick for second is Dunkirk (read our review), which continues to hold well after a few weeks of playing in theaters. Due to its widespread critical acclaim and its status as a must-see event on the biggest of screens, Christopher Nolan’s World War II drama has done excellent business since it opened, totaling $140.5 million domestically as of this writing. It should continue to draw in sizable crowds, even as its figures start to decline a bit.

#3 – The Nut Job 2: Nutty By Nature

Coming in third should be The Nut Job 2: Nutty By Nature, the sequel to the 2014 animated movie that brought in $64.2 million domestically during its theatrical run. Obviously, the property does not have the prowess of a studio like Pixar or DreamWorks, but it’s managed to do well enough within its target demographic in the past. One hurdle this followup will have to overcome, however, is the fact that it’s opening with very limited fan fare, meaning awareness could be an issue as it tries to stand out over some of the more noteworthy holdovers. The early reviews won’t be of much help either, as Nut Job 2 is widely panned. Projections have it pegged for $10 million in its first three days, which is well below the original.

The Nut Job Surly Squirrel Still e1467820954369 Box Office Prediction   The Dark Tower vs. Annabelle: Creation

#4 – The Dark Tower

Look for last week’s champ, The Dark Tower (read our review), to fall the fourth in its second weekend. The long-gestating adaptation of Stephen King’s novels emerged victorious in its opening frame, but did so with an uninspiring $19.1 million. It narrowly edged out Dunkirk, and didn’t have much traction with casual audiences. Now that the film has been released and the anticipation for it has died down, it looks like it’s set to take a massive drop.

#5 – Girls Trip

Rounding out the top five should be Girls Trip. The comedy has done very well in its run so far, taking advantage of the positive reviews and audience word-of-mouth. It has a monopoly on the genre for the time being, so it should continue to post high numbers.

Last Week’s Recap

Our Picks:

  • The Dark Tower
  • Dunkirk
  • Detroit
  • Girls Trip
  • The Emoji Movie

Actuals:

  • The Dark Tower
  • Dunkirk
  • The Emoji Movie
  • Girls Trip
  • Kidnap

Next Week: Logan Lucky, The Hitman’s Bodyguard, and more!

Sources: Box Office Mojo (Release Schedule), Box Office (Opening Weekend Projections)

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