Welcome to the Screen Rant Box Office Prediction. Every week we put together an informal list of box office picks for the upcoming weekend to offer readers a rough estimate of how new releases (and returning holdovers) will perform in theaters.

For a recap of last week’s box office totals, read our box office wrap-up from last weekend, and scroll to the bottom of this post to see how our picks matched up.

Full disclosure: Box office predictions are not an exact science. We acknowledge our picks may not always be correct. For the sake of offering a jumping off point for discussion, here are our picks for the weekend of September 29 – October 1, 2017.

This weekend, American Made opens in 3,024 theaters and Flatliners plays in 2,552 locations. Battle of the Sexes also gets a wide expansion, showing in 1,213 theaters.

#1 – Kingsman: The Golden Circle

We expect last week’s champ, Kingsman: The Golden Circle (read our review), to repeat in the top spot during its second weekend. The spy sequel earned $39 million in its first three days, overcoming a generally mixed critical reception by taking advantage of limited competition. Though word-of-mouth isn’t too great, Kingsman 2 still has a somewhat easy road to the #1 position again, seeing that it still has a monopoly on its target audience and is one of the few options playing geared to action fans. The film has also been performing well throughout the week, winning the daily charts since it opened last Friday. Since nothing coming out poses a direct threat to Kingsman, the movie should win.

Taron Egerton from Kingsman The Golden Circle Box Office Prediction: American Made vs. Kingsman 2

#2 – IT

Coming in second should be IT (read our review), which came in this spot last week with $29.7 million. There’s little left to say about the horror film’s box office dominance, as it has proven to be quite the phenomenon since debuting a few weeks back. Thanks to the enthusiastic word-of-mouth, IT has demonstrated strong legs throughout its run, and it should be able to hold on for at least a little longer.

#3 – American Made

Though it’s the challenger in our headline, we believe American Made (read our review) will only manage a third-place finish in its opening weekend. The film, which is based on the true story of drug smuggler Barry Seal, is a crime dramedy starring Tom Cruise. The actor is reuniting with his Edge of Tomorrow director Doug Liman on the project, and that previous collaboration brought in $100.2 million domestically before finding a larger audience on home media. One would hope that after a few years of Edge of Tomorrow‘s reputation growing, another movie with Cruise and Liman would be a big hit, but it doesn’t appear that is in the cards.

American Made‘s critical response is positive, so the reviews have little to do with why it might struggle at the box office. Ironically, its main selling point (Cruise) is also working against the film. Outside of the Mission: Impossible franchise, the A-lister’s commercial drawing power has diminished over the past handful of years. Just this summer, Cruise headlined infamous flop The Mummy ($80.1 million), and last year’s Jack Reacher: Never Go Back fared even worse with $58.6 million. It’s been a while since one of Cruise’s non-Ethan Hunt turns posted high numbers, and there’s little reason to expect American Made will be the one to break the trend. Though the marketing campaign has been visible, it’s arriving to theaters with little fan fare and awards buzz – putting it at a disadvantage. With Blade Runner 2049 on the horizon, people may opt to wait and skip on this one.

American Made Domhnall Gleeson Tom Cruise Box Office Prediction: American Made vs. Kingsman 2

#4 – The LEGO Ninjago Movie

Coming in fourth should be The LEGO Ninjago Movie (read our review), which opened in third last weekend with $20.4 million. That was the lowest debut for a LEGO film by far, indicating that this one wasn’t in high demand as it came in theaters. Normally, family films are a reliable bet from a box office perspective, but this one never managed to catch on. It doesn’t seem likely to turn things around in the coming weeks, especially after the lukewarm critical reception. Ninjago is on a course to fade into a distant memory in a short period of time.

#5 – Flatliners

Rounding out the top five should be Flatliners, which is a sequel to the 1990 cult classic of the same name. The original was a modest hit back in its day, grossing $61.4 million in its theatrical run. It definitely has a following, but many would be hard-pressed to argue that there’s been a keen interest in future installments. Additionally, the followup is being hamstrung by poor reviews, which will do nothing but harm to its commercial prospects. With a lack of star power (Ellen Page is the biggest name in the cast) and IT still there for the horror crowd, Flatliners is facing an uphill climb. Estimates have it pegged for $7.6 million in its first three days.

Last Week’s Recap

Our Picks

  • Kingsman: The Golden Circle
  • The LEGO Ninjago Movie
  • IT
  • American Assassin
  • Home Again

Actuals

  • Kingsman: The Golden Circle
  • IT
  • The LEGO Ninjago Movie
  • American Assassin
  • mother!

Next Week: Kingsman: The Golden Circle, The LEGO Ninjago Movie, and more!

Sources: Box Office Mojo (Release Schedule), Box Office (Opening Weekend Projections)

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