The box office has notably slowed in recent years, but the upcoming slate of 2022 movies suggests the billion-dollar movie is back — here are the top contenders to earn $1 billion this year. Since the COVID-19 pandemic, only one movie has earned $1 billion at the global box office: Spider-Man: No Way Home. The December 2021 movie smashed records for pandemic earnings and has set a precedence for 2022. Box office experts have predicted that earnings will only increase for films after No Way Home, but will any be able to make a billion dollars?
There are certain 2022 movies that have the potential to draw in a significant box office haul, but it’s hard to believe they’ll cross the $1 billion mark. Tom Holland clearly has box office pull with the miraculous $1 billion earning of Spider-Man: No Way Home, even amidst a global COVID surge, but this can also be accounted for by the film being a major event considering it marked the end of the MCU’s Homecoming trilogy as well as the many rumors behind cameo appearances. Consequently, Tom Holland’s 2022 Uncharted movie has a chance to at least break even with a budget of $120 million. Additionally, contenders for a high box office earning that aren’t as likely to make it to $1 billion in 2022 are Morbius, Top Gun: Maverick, Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom, Mission Impossible 7, Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse - Part 1, Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore, Black Adam, and The Flash.
Following a year of delays, day-and-date streaming premieres, and less draw to come to the movie theaters amidst the pandemic, 2022 is chock-full of franchise films that are apt to continue the triumphant return to cinema of No Way Home. While most of the upcoming blockbuster movies are apt to make a significant amount of money, not all are frontrunners for a $1 billion global draw. That said, here’s a breakdown of the most anticipated 2022 movies that are the top contenders to make $1 billion at the box office.
Why Billion Dollar Movies Are More Difficult Now
While the 1990s and 2000s saw a few films reach and surpass $1 billion a the box office, the era of the billion-dollar movie was booming in the late 2010s. In 2019 alone, nine films joined the list of 48 movies that have made over a billion dollars. While streaming services have been a large contributor to the recent decline in $1 billion earning movies, the prospects of grossing such high numbers came to an unprecedented slow with the COVID-19 pandemic. Since 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic has shut down movie theaters worldwide and lowered audience interest in risking a trip to the cinema, thus the frequency of billion-dollar movies has enormously decreased.
Aside from James Cameron's Titanic, every film that has earned more than $1 billion is now a franchise movie or comes from existing IP, which is why they’re always the best bet at the box office for studios. While the franchise films are apt to be the ones joining the billion-dollar club in 2022, the plethora of movies available at home to stream and the lasting effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are making it much more difficult for them to achieve. That said, the upcoming slate of movies for 2022 have a better chance to reach a billion, especially since box office predictions expect an increase in earnings for the year.
The Batman
DC's The Batman, which premieres on March 4, has been one of the most highly anticipated solo Batman features since Christopher Nolan’s The Dark Knight trilogy, and has unsurprisingly been the most anticipated 2022 movie for Warner Bros. Robert Pattinson will debut as Bruce Wayne, with supporting performances from Paul Dano, Colin Farrell, and Zoe Kravitz as notable Batman villains and anti-heroes in a film that promises a darker, more neo-noir take on the Caped Crusader. The Batman has long been projected to bring in a significant box office haul, partially because Batman movies in the past have been known to do particularly well — Christopher Nolan’s The Dark Knight and The Dark Knight Rises each raked in over $1 billion a decade ago. With a stellar cast, a new take on the story, and the advantage of being the first major superhero franchise film after No Way Home, The Batman is a top 2022 contender to earn a billion.
Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
While The Batman is apt to make a strong pull in March, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness is projected to earn the same amount of money at the box office in May. Doctor Strange 2 is predicted to be the biggest 2022 movie coming hot off the heels of Spider-Man: No Way Home for the MCU, which already has the advantage of also bringing back another beloved character, Wanda, whose Disney+ TV series captivated audiences back in late 2020. Betting against the MCU isn’t typically the best move, and while Doctor Strange only earned $677.7 million in 2016, the sequel has far more weight and anticipation to it. If any MCU film is apt to bring in $1 billion in 2022, the best bet is Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, which premieres on May 6.
Jurassic World: Dominion
The Jurassic Park film franchise originally adapted by Steven Spielberg has been one of the best box office performers since its debut in 1993, which was reignited for a new generation when rebooted with Jurassic World. Considering Jurassic World (2015) and Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (2018) each far surpassed the $1 billion box office earning marks, it’s highly probable that Jurassic World: Dominion, the final installment of the trilogy, will follow suit. Bringing back Jurassic Park franchise actors Chris Pratt, Bryce Dallas Howard, Jeff Goldblum, Sam Neill, and Laura Dern, Jurassic World: Dominion will likely become the event film of the summer alongside Thor: Love and Thunder and Lightyear. If any of the summer 2022 movie is apt to cross the $1 billion line, it’ll be Jurassic World: Dominion after its release on June 10.
Lightyear
Another franchise film, Lightyear is one of the most anticipated 2022 family movies, which will be introducing a new angle to the Pixar and Toy Story universe. Instead of being a solo movie about Tim Allen’s Buzz Lightyear toy, Lightyear is a standalone movie depicting the origin story of the in-universe Buzz Lightyear sci-fi character that inspired Andy’s toy. Voiced by Captain America’s Chris Evans, Pixar’s new take is expected to draw viewers of all ages to the Toy Story franchise spin-off venture. Outside of superhero movies and sci-fi epics, Lightyear has the best chance to earn $1 billion after it premieres on June 17.
Thor: Love and Thunder
Depending on how Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness performs in May, Thor: Love and Thunder has a similarly optimistic chance to earn over $1 billion at the box office when it releases on July 8. Out of Doctor Strange and Thor, the former is the most likely to rake in $1 billion, but it’s hard to believe director Taiki Waiti’s highly anticipated film won’t bring in a big crowd, especially since it opens on a holiday weekend. Thor: Ragnarok earned $854 million at the box office, but this sequel has much more going for it, partially because of the aftermath of Avengers: Endgame, Thor’s team up with the Guardians of the Galaxy, and the return of Natalie Portman’s Jane Foster. Paired with the sheer amount of characters that will be returning for Thor: Love and Thunder and the brilliant writing of Taika Waititi, the film is bound to benefit from its summer release and soar at the box office.
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
The third major MCU movie to premiere in 2022 is Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, the long-awaited sequel to 2018’s $1 billion-earning and Best Picture Oscar-nominated movie Black Panther. Black Panther 2 comes off of one of the most critically acclaimed superhero movies in recent history, and has an even higher task of succeeding after the untimely passing of Black Panther actor Chadwick Boseman in 2020. The sequel will excitingly return viewers to the miraculous world of Wakanda after the events of Endgame, but the film has already faced behind-the-scenes turmoil through anti-vaccine controversies with Shuri actress Letitia Wright. While it’s unknown if this will affect Black Panther 2’s box office chances, it doesn’t bode well for positive anticipation of the movie. That said, the cultural importance and incredible worldbuilding of Wakanda and the Black Panther movies have an enormous pull on MCU fans and typical moviegoers alike, so Black Panther: Wakanda Forever is apt to see around $1 billion in earnings upon its November 11 release.
Avatar 2
While some have lost interest in Avatar 2, there’s no denying that it will still have an extensive draw on the global scale. James Cameron’s Avatar (2009) remains the highest-earning film in history at $2.847 billion, outperforming both Titanic and Avengers: Endgame. Considering the global pull that Avatar has paired with the notion that the sequel has been 13 years in the making, it would be absolutely surprising if Avatar 2’s sci-fi epic didn’t earn at least half of what its predecessor made. Considering Avatar 2 releases on December 16 alongside Aquaman 2, some of its earnings may be divided with the DCEU fandom, but the James Cameron film is also more likely to bring in audiences that aren’t invested in the superhero universe. With Avatar holding the title for highest box office earnings in history, anything below $1 billion for Avatar 2 would be a disappointment for the 2022 movie.